Warning from Essex: Labour can’t bank on working class voters returning to the fold

Originally published by Labourlist on 30/12/2019.

Essex is an odd starting point for 2019 election analysis. The Basildon bellwether is no more. The Tories hold the South Basildon and East Thurrock seat with a majority just short of twenty thousand – like the rest of the county the seat is true blue.

Given the Conservative Party’s tightening grip on this corner of the country it is little wonder that the broadcasters’ gaze has wandered elsewhere in recent years. In 2015 it was Nuneaton not the Basildon seat where reporters flocked to. While the likes of Thurrock, and Harlow, also Essex constituencies held by Labour until 2010, were similarly shunned. But, now Nuneaton is no longer news. The red wall has crumbled and Westminster’s lens is squarely focused on the debris scattered across Labour’s old-heartlands in the North and Midlands.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Don’t lose your honour – Britain can do more for Hongkongers

Originally Published by the Hong Kong Free Press on 08/12/2019.

Hong Kong’s last governor Chris Patten warned Britain that ignoring creeping authoritarianism in its former colony while pursuing trade deals with the People’s Republic of China risked the country losing its honour. It is a question I pondered in my first piece for the Hong Kong Free Press just under three years ago.

In my piece, I praised a few exceptional British parliamentarians who regularly spoke out about freedoms in Hong Kong. One was Labour’s then Shadow Minister Catherine West, although I could have easily named the Conservative’s Fiona Bruce and others. Either way, the point was that these were lone voices on the green benches. I bemoaned the scant attention paid to developments in the city by Fleet Street and the general disinterest amongst the British public outside of the country’s Hong Kong diaspora. 

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Why Hongkongers owe Donald Trump nothing, despite the steadfast support of Congress

Originally published by the Hong Kong Free Press on 28/11/2019.

Hong Kong’s self-styled saviour does not deserve the gratitude of the city’s citizens. Mr Trump may have signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act but his words show whose side he is really on.

American presidents engage in realpolitik, this is a given. They have to make tough decisions and sometimes have to keep schtum about horrors being committed beyond their borders. At best, when they go about this business they will, as the Soviet dissident Vladimir Bukovsky put it, ask themselves “how will it look to the boys in the camps?”. Yet for all the sentimental thoughts in the world they nevertheless act as Washington’s head.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Democrats must stand up to China

Originally published by the Taipei Times on 19/11/2019.

The election of Donald Trump as 45th president of the US has been a mixed blessing for longstanding critics of Washington’s engagement policy regarding Beijing.

As I have argued before in the Taipei Times, the president himself and the people whom he chooses to surround himself with send mixed signals. From hawkish posturing to heaping on nauseating levels of praise, the current US administration’s approach to China covers the spectrum.

Yet in the field of economics, where Trump’s challenge has been strongest, things look set to cool down as the US and the People’s Republic of China try to finalize a trade deal.

Those keen to promote human rights and protect the liberal democratic international order have been sidelined. Once Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) settle their differences on trade, could this sidelining continue as both countries reproach one another?

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

In Taiwan elections, mudslinging and shock-and-awe tactics should be seen as a sign of desperation

Originally published by the Hong Kong Free Press on 16/11/2019.

Forget Washington’s “liberal establishment” and the “metropolitan elite” who dominate the Palace of Westminster, we now have Taipei’s “plump” “fair-skinned” technocrats to despise.

Those are the words of, who else but, presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu. The conservative Kuomintang (KMT) hopeful was speaking at a campaign rally in Yuanlin City a couple of weeks ago. Han directed this personal attack against several Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) politicians, including his rival in next January’s vote, President Tsai Ing-wen.

The Kaohsiung Mayor has form when it comes to lobbing around insults. His offensive comments are well documented, as too are the gaffes which have littered his presidential run so far.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

A flagging campaign: Can gaffe-prone Han Kuo-yu recover his Taiwan poll lead to beat Tsai Ing-wen?

Originally published by the Hong Kong Free Press on 28/10/2019.

Another price-gouging scandal made its way into Taiwan’s English-language press this week after a tourist was duped into handing over a stack of cash for a meagre meal at Shilin Night Market. The victim of this skulduggery was quick to share her outrage online, alongside a photo of the two portions of grilled beef cubes which she purchased for NT$600. A price which is roughly equivalent to HK$150. More shockingly still, that’s four pints of táipí (臺啤), Taiwan’s most favoured tipple, and a (couple of) very early morning shāobǐng yóutiáos (燒餅油條). Basically, she got ripped off.

She will not be the last person to be taken advantage of at a tourist hotspot. This is life! People will try deceiving you wherever you go. You expect a cheap meal – and are left with a crippling bill. The builder tells you the job will take two days – and it takes two weeks. You elect a man to run your city – and he buggers off to run for president.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Lam’s HK strategy unlikely to be effective

Originally published by the Taipei Times on 15/10/2019.

The introduction of emergency powers in Hong Kong show that embattled Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam (林鄭月娥) has listened to at least one of the protesters’ cries: jia you (come on, 加油).

Not only does the new law banning face masks at public gatherings curtail Hong Kongers’ precious right to protest, but the move looks likely to douse an already fiery situation with generous lashings of gasoline.

Over the past few months, the scenes from Hong Kong beamed around the world have defied the territory’s traditional image as a straight-laced commerce hub. Not that this stereotype had much truth to it.

As readers of Antony Dapiran’s new book City of Protest will know, Hong Kongers have always been a political bunch. Yet the fallout from an extradition bill that was controversially proposed earlier this year has ushered in a new era of unrest.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Why Taiwan will remain defiant, despite two more diplomatic losses to Beijing

Originally published by the Hong Kong Free Press on 25/09/2019.

Moving from the UK to Taipei has many advantages: tastier food, a cleaner, cooler underground system and, yes, vastly better weather – I’d take a sweltering Taiwanese summer day over grey English drizzle anytime. And, for a politico like me it provides the opportunity to immerse myself in the country’s politics at Hong Kong solidarity rallies, or a very different, slightly bluer, type of gathering…

My relocation has also allowed me to observe Taiwan’s news cycle throughout the day. Over the past few weeks, if my university library’s telly is anything to go by, it has been the ‘will he, won’t he?” saga starring Foxconn tycoon Terry Gou which has captured the media’s attention (his face has been on that screen constantly!). Being here also gives me a small insight into the mood of the Taiwanese public.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Trump stumbles on HK response

Originally published by the Taipei Times on 31/08/2019.

US President Donald Trump’s administration’s confused response to the Hong Kong crisis risks emboldening Beijing.

In June, Hong Kongers began demonstrating against a proposed extradition bill that threatens the territory’s autonomy.

Opposition to this proposal was so strong that at its peak, 2 million people were on the streets — roughly one-third of the population.

In response, the Hong Kong government suspended the bill, but did not fully withdraw it, a measure that was not good enough for many. This face-saving fudge, alongside the government’s general ineptitude and police brutality perpetrated under its watch, has led to weeks of demonstrations.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Cross-Strait solidarity: Hongkongers and Taiwanese know they have to help save each other

Originally published by the Hong Kong Free Press on 24/08/2019.

“It is our Taiwan; we got to save it ourselves” was the rallying cry of Sunflower activists when they occupied their country’s Legislative Yuan in March 2014. Later that year, the slogan “Our Hong Kong, let’s save it ourselves” would become almost as synonymous as the yellow umbrella with the occupation of the city’s streets.

Both Sunflower and Umbrella movement activists proclaimed their commitment to democracy and their opposition to the People’s Republic of China. It is, therefore, no surprise that these protests have been linked together in the minds of outside observers. The connection has been made by activists and participants in Taiwan and Hong Kong too. In what might be one of the few positive examples of cross-strait relations in recent years.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Labour must stand with Hongkongers

Originally published by Labour Uncut on 23/08/2019.

Tom Watson is right the United Kingdom must not sit idly by while Hongkongers lose their rights and freedoms – and neither should the Labour Party.

On 16 August the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party addressed, via video, thousands of pro-democracy protesters who had gathered at the Charter Garden in Hong Kong. The desire of those attending the Power to the People rally was a simple one, to have a government which was accountable to them, the citizens. Watson offered his solidarity and called on the British government to give “direct moral support for the people of Hong Kong”.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

If the UK’s new PM wants to be free from China, he should meet the Dalai Lama

Originally published by the Hong Kong Free Press on 15/07/2019.

In his column for The Times of London last October, the writer Edward Lucas invited his readers to consider whether or not they lived in a free country. For Lucas, the answer to this multifaceted question came in the form of one simple test: do your politicians feel free to meet the Dalai Lama?

“If the answer is no, then you are part of the Chinese empire – you just haven’t realised it yet”, he said.

British Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May, who departed for the backbenches on Wednesday to be replaced by Boris Johnson, has unquestionably failed the “Tibet Test.” The fact many of her predecessors have barely passed, with a couple of C’s in the New Labour years and a derisory D-minus for David “Golden-Era” Cameron, is of no comfort. The outgoing occupant of No.10 Downing Street sets a new low as she becomes the first Prime Minister since John Major not to have met the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism. Resulting in a big fat F for her.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE.

Politicking, polls, and Taiwan’s presidential primary: Can Tsai Ing-wen survive in 2020?

Originally published by the Hong Kong Free Press on 01/04/2019.

For politicos an election never seems far off. When the polls close and the results are announced for one election, the campaigning for the next one begins.

Last month, the country’s Central Election Commission announced that Taiwan’s Presidential and Legislative Yuan elections will be held on 11 January 2020. Yet the campaigning for these races really kicked off last November after the Taiwanese public cast their votes for council and mayoral candidates.

Prior to the November results, the question of who would be elected President in 2020 was significantly less interesting than it is now. Voters gave the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who hold the executive and legislature, a drubbing well beyond the typical kicking an incumbent gets.

The DPP lost half their mayors across the island to a surprisingly resurgent Kuomintang (KMT). The prize of the night for the nationalist KMT was the maverick Han Kuo-yu’s gain in the DPP’s southern stronghold Kaohsiung.

As I explained to friends unfamiliar with Taiwanese politics, this was the equivalent of a Southern populist Republican winning the state of Massachusetts.

Ever since the green wave which brought President Tsai Ing-wen to power, and gave the DPP a majority in the Legislative Yuan for the first time in the country’s history, a quick KMT comeback was written off. November’s results changed this. Moreover, it brought into question Tsai’s re-selection as the DPP’s presidential nominee.

Enter Lai Ching-te, the former deputy of Tsai, who – last month – entered the race to become the DPP’s Presidential candidate. While a run for the presidency was widely expected of him at some point, this challenge came as a surprise to many within the party.

Read full article here. 

Australia canary in the coal mine

Originally published by the Taipei Times on 11/03/2019.

In March last year, journalist John Garnaut warned readers of Foreign Affairs that “Australia is the canary in the coal mine of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) interference.”

He highlighted numerous cases of the CCP working to covertly manipulate his country’s political system, from access buying and Beijing-linked political donors to the hijacking of universities for party propaganda.

Similar meddling has also been documented in New Zealand by academic Anne-Marie Brady, a China specialist, who as a result has herself been the target of pro-China harassment.

Miners used to quickly exit the toxin-filled mine shafts after their caged canaries dropped dead, but when it comes to Beijing and its suffocation of free societies, liberal democracies have been slow to notice the early indicators.

Read full article here.

The case of Gui Minhai: The Rushdie affair revisited – with less bloodshed and less international interest

Originally published on the Hong Kong Free Press on 10/03/2019.

Thirty years on from the Rushdie Affair, the ongoing detention of Gui Minhai in China is yet another reminder of the threat that dictators pose to free expression.

At the end of the 20th century you could be forgiven for being an optimist. Fifty years after the defeat of fascism in Europe, the other great totalitarian threat, Soviet communism, had crumbled as the world witnessed a succession of democratic waves from Latin America to East Asia. It was not that history itself had ended but as Francis Fukuyama put it, that liberal democracy had won.

The year 1989 will go down as a turning point in this struggle. In that year the Hungarian government began, physically, dismantling the iron curtain and the people of Poland ended communist party rule. Across Czechoslovakia thousands called for freedom while across the Baltic states a human chain, repudiating Soviet rule, formed. In November, the Berlin Wall, a cold war behemoth which had divided the city since 1961, was opened—momentous changes were taking place.

Yet, despite this huge release of human energy not all dictatorships fell and not all tyrants bowed to cries for freedom. The year 1989 also witnessed two events which foreshadowed the current challenges to free societies, and the ability of their citizens to express themselves.

Read full article here.

Para Los Muchos, No Los Pocos – Why The Left Should Unite Behind Juan Guaidó

Originally published on the Gerasites on 31/01/2019.

The decision by segments of the western Left to support Nicolás Maduro’s election rigging, human rights abusing government in Venezuela once again exposes their undemocratic and illiberal impulses. Over the past week they have spread the regime’s lies about; the causes of the country’s economic crisis, the political situation there, and about its left-leaning interim president Juan Guaidó. More worrying still, the indulgence of pro-Maduro propaganda is not confined to the old hard-Left here in Britain. Rather, it appears to be gaining traction amongst a new generation of American ‘progressives’ – a sea change which no doubt makes it politically savvy for Democratic presidential hopefuls to continue ignoring the cries from Caracas.

Read full article here.