Originally published by the New Diplomacy Project on 24/01/2022.
Beijing has attempted to squeeze Taiwan’s international space by poaching its few remaining diplomatic allies and blocking the country’s participation in international organisations. It has also used coercive economic tools to punish the government in Taipei. Such measures are designed to demoralise the Taiwanese people and impress on them the supposed inevitability of unification.
Taiwan matters to the UK. It is a fellow liberal democracy which has much to offer and teach the rest of the world, with its response to Covid-19 being a case in point. Its location in the first island chain makes it critical to the future order in the Indo-Pacific. Likewise, as a leading producer of semiconductors an armed conflict over Taiwan could cause severe disruption to the global economy.
Calculating the risks of war is incredibly difficult. The balance of military power across the Strait has unquestionably shifted in China’s favour. The Chinese military is also developing the capabilities to launch an amphibious landing of the main island.
However, a decision to annex Taiwan will be a political one and as such an assessment of Xi Jinping’s language and priorities is needed. The risk of armed conflict should not be overplayed, attention should instead be directed to supporting Taiwan with the problems it faces now.
The Labour Party should treat Taiwan as a partner by stepping up engagement with government officials and Taiwanese civil society. It should also push the UK government harder to support efforts to allow Taiwan to meaningfully participate in international organisations and support efforts to enhance Taiwan’s economic resilience.
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